If you go to a barbecue, a neighborhood barbecue, and there are 80 people there, 20 of them think prices are going to fall. If you walk out of your house of worship this weekend and there are 400 people in the house of worship walking out the front door with you, a hundred of them think prices are going to fall. That’s a lot of people. We have to make sure that we get the word out there that prices are not falling and the only thing we know, facts shatter fear. Facts shatter fear. We have to have the facts. We have to share the facts to get people less afraid of what’s going to happen with prices. Now, the reason that all those crazy headlines were occurring last fall in winter was in fact, most people thought, most economists thought that people would panic and put their home on the market.
They said, “Well, with mortgage rates rapidly rising, with the talk of a recession coming, people were going to be afraid of 2008 all over again and they were going to rush all their houses to the market and that oversupply was going to cause a challenge.” As a matter of fact, Bill McBride talked directly to that. Just recently he put this out, “As inventory picked up sharply in 2022, I adjusted my outlook in October, 2022 and wrote House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory. I noted that a 10% decline in nominal prices now seemed likely.”
Well, the inflation rate just dropped like a rock. And ladies and gentlemen, I think the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is going to do the same thing. Can I guess when? No. This is what I’ve learned in 35 years. Nobody knows exactly when, but we can loo at the indicators and say it’s not that far away because I think that’s true. But the single most important thing, ladies and gentlemen, is that we can’t be afraid. We have to be out there. We have to explain to the consumer what’s that taking place. We have to take the fear out of the market.
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